Let’s all just agree that a week from now it might be best to stay off social media (unless you’re interested in seeing a furious, nasty, guaranteed-to-be-depressing digital civil war unfold). This is because in just a few days America will be having Election Day- a day historically designated for finding out which candidate will become the president-elect (although in COVID times, the timeline has the potential to become hazy). However after last year’s results came as an astounding shock that could be felt across the globe, people have been looking for diligent and sound assurances on who will be the next president of the United States. So what promises, if any, can be given to the American people during these unprecedented times? 

For starters, people need to brace themselves for the possibility of a delayed answer. This is due to the fact that some states will not begin opening the mail-in ballots until Election Day; only then will they begin counting those responses. With this in mind, it’s possible that the additional time it will take to process the results will lead to a prolonged period of not knowing who won the election. There’s also been the hovering idea that President Trump might not concede if the results are not to his liking. Over the past few weeks, Trump has been laying the groundwork for such a scenario by criticizing the validity of mail-in voting and when pressed by Chris Wallace at a debate on rather he’d accept defeat graciously, he doggedly replied “What I’m saying is that I’ll tell you at the time. I’ll keep you in suspense. Okay?”

However there are some circumstances that, if made reality, will give one candidate a decisive victory on Election Day. For example, if Biden can win swing-state Florida, which although not imperative for a victory, it will certify him as the undoubted president-elect. Likewise, most election trackers are supporting this outcome, with Biden leading not just in Florida, but in nationwide polls. According to FiveThirtyEIght, of the outcomes they ran Biden won 88 out of 100 and Trump won 12 out of 100. 

Understandably many have been hesitant to trust such polls after their failure to prepare the American people for an unforeseen result last election. There are things to be said on that point too however. While the media and most people were quick to blame polls for not foreshadowing Trump, a lot of the surprise derived from the 2016 election could be equally attributed to misunderstanding how polls work. “The average error in all polls conducted in the last stage of campaigns since 1998 is 6 percentage points…This means you shouldn’t be surprised when a candidate who had been trailing in the polls by only a few points wins a race,” Nat Silver from FiveThirtyEight explains. It’s also worth mentioning that Biden’s chances are higher than what Clinton’s were, who at this point in the election was already starting to lose ground. Of course, even with Biden’s double-digit lead in some polls, Trump could still win as Silver goes on to explain. “…even a poll showing a 10- or 12- or 14- isn’t enough to make a candidate’s lead ‘safe.’” 

Right now, there are a lot of questions swirling around and little answers to be given. While it is easy to be frustrated by this, it’s important to remain level-headed and civil, especially when things have the potential to become fervently chaotic. As for what the American people can do, there are really only two things to be said- vote if eligible and prepare yourself for what could become an unprecedented election night.